On 29 June 2012 the U.S. Embassy in Abuja issued the following Security Message:”Beginning Friday, June 29 through July 1, all U.S. government personnel in Abuja are restricted from going to places of worship and all commercial establishments adjacent to any place of worship. In addition, all U.S. government personnel are required to return to their residences by 12:00 midnight. These restrictions will be re-reviewed on Monday, July 2.
“These measures are being taken as a safety precaution because of recent extremist attacks on five churches in the states of Bauchi, Jos, and Kaduna, and the attacks in Borno, Yobe, Kano and other areas resulting in scores of deaths. An explosion occurred outside a nightclub in Abuja on June 22. Media continually report extremist threats to attack throughout June.
“The situation in the country remains fluid and unpredictable. The U.S. Mission in Nigeria strongly urges U.S. citizens in Nigeria to consider their personal security and to keep personal safety in the forefront of their planning.”
CCI Analysis: We see the Embassy action as prohibiting US government employees from going to church as very significant. This follows the Embassy’s Warning last week of intelligence regarding attacks on churches in Nigeria the weekends of June 23-24 and June 30 – July 1. We recognize that statistically speaking, the odds of any single church in the country being attacked is small; however, we assess this Warning as indicating the Embassy believes a Boko Haram attack on a church or churches this weekend is a high probability. CCI believes such an attack is most likely to occur in city where Boko Haram has previously attacked churches (although this is a probability analysis only; and does not preclude the potential for an attack against a church in a “new” city).