Threat of Reprisal Attacks in Afghanistan

Following the unprovoked killing of approximately 16 civilians in Afghanistan by a US soldier, the threat of reprisal attacks is significant.  The US Embassy in Kabul issued an emergency message on March 11:

“The U.S. Embassy in Kabul alerts U.S. citizens in Afghanistan that as a result of a tragic shooting incident in Kandahar province involving a U.S. service member,     there is a risk of anti-American feelings and protests in coming days, especially in eastern and southern provinces.  The Embassy is carefully monitoring the situation and may send out additional emergency messages as the situation evolves.”

CCI believes that it is very possible that this threat can extend beyond US, NATO and ISAF military and official targets to non-goverment targets perceived to be American or associated with American entities.  This threat to non-military and non-official targets is caused by two factors: First, military and “official” targets will extend their security and protection measures significantly and will become much harder targets to attack.  And secondly, these killings, although almost certainly perpetrated by a “lone wolf” actor with some type of  psychological and/or emotional breakdown, were perpetrated against an innocent civilian population.  This could well inspire retaliation “in kind”, that is, against civilian American targets.  Faith-based organizations, and NGOs could very well become targets of retaliation in this environment.

Organizations desiring more analysis or specific security recommendations can contact us by emailing rklamser@cricon.org.